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Let’s talk facts. Chronologically.
‣ 1990s: The Surge Era:
India added ~180 million people this decade.
TFR hovered around 3.8.
Healthcare improved, mortality dropped, but family planning lagged.
Result?
Resource strain, education gaps, and the beginning of job scarcity.
‣ 2000s: Stabilisation Begins
TFR declined to 2.7.
Population crossed 1.1 billion.
Urban migration picked up, but rural India still housed ~70% of the population.
Southern states (Kerala, TN, and Andhra) led in fertility control.
North lagged behind.
‣ 2010s: The Great Divide
TFR fell below 2.3 nationally.
Southern states approached or dipped below replacement level (2.1).
UP, Bihar, and MP still had TFRs above 2.7.
India became younger, but unevenly.
Urban clusters swelled: Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad saw explosive growth.
‣ 2020s: Demographic Crossroads
India surpassed China in 2023.
Now stands at 1.43 billion (2025) – the largest population on Earth.
TFR = 2.0 (UNFPA, 2024).
Urban population: ~36%.
North-South divide worsens:
– UP TFR: 2.4
– Kerala TFR: 1.7
States like Punjab and West Bengal are also slipping below replacement.
Future: What’s Coming?
1. Peak population expected: ~1.7 billion by 2064 (UN Projection).
2. Start of decline: Post-2065.
– By 2100, India may fall to 1.1–1.2 billion.
But here’s the catch.
The age pyramid will flip.
Major Challenges Ahead:
1. Ageing population:
– Seniors (60+) to triple by 2050.
– Pension, healthcare, elderly care = massive pressure.
2. Workforce shifts:
– The South will see labour shortages.
– The North will have a surplus of young people, but they are under-skilled.
3. Urban pressure:
– Tier-1 cities choking.
– Overcrowded, under-planned, under-resourced.
4. Policy paradox:
– Some states need fertility control.
– Others need population support.
Bottom Line:
India doesn’t have a population problem.
It has a population management problem.
Time is running out to turn the demographic advantage into a dividend – before it becomes a demographic disaster.
Sources:
– UN World Population Prospects (2022–24)
– NFHS-5 (2020–21)
– Census Projections (GoI, 2019)